Thursday, May 12, 2011

Jeremy's Grantham Quarterly Newsletter Q1 Part 2

After explaining with he thinks we are in a paradigm shift in the commodities markets earlier last month, Jeremy Grantham published the second part entitled "Time To Be Serious (and probably too early) Once Again".

Here are the key points:

* US Stocks are overvalued by over 40% (Fair value for the S&P 500: 920) based on GMO methodology
* Year 3 is generally good for stocks, but there are many uncertainties including whether QE3 will be enacted
* He doubts the market can reach 1500 by October 1
* Now is not the time to float with the FED, but to fight it.
* GMO increased Japan equities positions are the market seems undervalued
* High Quality Stocks outperformed small caps since March 31: +5% vs -1% as expected
* Long Term recommendations: Forestry and agricultural land

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