Saturday, October 15, 2011

GEAB 58: H1 2012: Decimation of Western Banks

Here are the highlights of GEAB 58 (October 2011) entitled "Global systemic crisis - First semester 2012: Decimation of Western banks":
  • Global systemic crisis – First half of 2012: Decimation of the Western banks
It’s this very unhealthy financial environment that will cause the "decimation of Western banks" in the first half of 2012: with their profitability in freefall, balance sheets in disarray, with the disappearance of trillions of USD assets, with States increasingly pushing for strict regulation of their activities, even placing them under public supervision and increasingly hostile public opinion, now the scaffold has been erected and at least 10% of Western banks will have to pass that way in the coming quarters... Read public announcement
  • Global systemic crisis: LEAP/E2020 anticipation of 40 countries’ risks 2012-2016 (USA, Euroland, BRICS, Japan, UK, Australia, Argentina, Sweden, Egypt, Switzerland, Philippines, Mexico, South Korea, Morocco, Libya, Syria, Iran, Israel, Poland, Thailand, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Chile, …) - Widespread collapse at the heart of the global geopolitical dislocation phase... with very different prospects for exiting the crisis depending on the country
In this issue, our team sets out the annual update of "countries’ risks" under the crisis from 2012 to 2016. The assessment of country risk for the next 5 years is meant to be a decision-making tool for political and economic players and investors (individuals, companies or institutions). In a world in turmoil, it offers a medium-term perspective based on the methodology of political anticipation which has proved itself over nearly six years in terms of anticipating the global crisis and its consequences. Based on an analysis incorporating twelve criteria this year, this decision-making tool has already demonstrated its relevance for many years, faithfully anticipating developments generated by the crisis....
  • GEAB $ Index – October 2011: The US$ fall accelerates against the €, ¥, Ұ and R$ basket
As our team has explained in many GEAB issues, the traditional Dollar Index (used by the financial markets) isn’t a reliable indicator for calculating the Dollar’s progress. In fact, it is based on a basket of currencies which is no longer representative, neither of the major global monetary balances, nor United States’ trade. This currency basket is, in fact, a "tiny Western club" even more illegitimate today than the G8. …
  • Strategic and operational recommendations
    • Banks: How to avoid being trapped in the decimation of Western banks?
    • Gold – Currencies: A new inflexion point coming up
    • Commercial real estate: The moment of truth comes closer
  • The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
We note a continuation of the major uncertainty over the exact state of Euroland governance progress. This month opinion is split (48%), still showing the clash between the laborious, but real, putting in place of this governance with the solid message showing the opposite…

The full GEAB 58 (PDF format) is available to subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

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