Tuesday, June 19, 2012

GEAB 66: Global Systemic Crisis Red Alert !

Here are the highlights of GEAB 66 (June 2012) entitled "Red Alert Global Systemic Crisis September-October 2012 : When the 7 Jericho trumpets will blow for the world of before the crisis":
  • Red Alert Global Systemic Crisis September-October 2012 : When the 7 Jericho trumpets will blow for the world of before the crisis. LEAP 2020 team has never seen so many economic, financial and political factors converge at the same time and this leads them to issue a Red Alert for Autumn 2012.They see 13 factors:
    1. Global recession.
    2. Insolvency of the financial system in the West.
    3. Increasing Weakness of bank assets such as sovereign debts, real estate and CDS.
    4. Slump of international trade.
    5. Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East.
    6. Long term global geopolitical deadlock at the UN.
    7. Rapid collapse of funded pension plans in the Western economies.
    8. Increasing political rifts in major economies (USA, China, Russia).
    9. Lack of "miracle" solutions like in 2008/2009.
    10. Complete lack of credibility for countries battling with high private and public debts.
    11. Failure to reduce the unemployment rate and long term unemployment
    12. Failure of both monetary and financial stimulus policies and austerity policies.
    13. Complete lack of effectiveness of G20, G8, Rio+20, OMC... meetings
  • Three economic-financial chocs at the heart of the heart of the historical choc of September/October 2012. "Taxmargeddon" will start in the US this summer, the City-Wall Street will have their own Bankia moment and QE will be too weak to be effective.
  • Temporal converge of 4 major geopolitical crises for September/October 2012.  LEAP 2020 anticipate the Iran war will take place this year, along with continued conflicts in Syria, and the Afghanistan/Pakistan debacle. After the Arab Spring last year, they foresee the Arab Autumn.
  • Strategic and operational recommendations. Need to re-adjust currency holdings,  stay invested in Gold, last chance to get out before massive stock market crash and major risk for banks. 
  • GEAB $ Index June 2012 - First time since 2006 : The US dollar goes up against the currency basket €, ¥, Ұ et R$ .
  • The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. The majority of respondents think that a European solution to the crisis is better than national solutions (96% this month vs 91% last month)
The full GEAB 66 report (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year for 10 new issues + the 6 issues published before subscription.

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