Yes, it's short, it's just 4 pages long and comprise a list of notes to himself, subject that he plans to write about mainly:
- Caution is advised due to the situation in Europe.
- The U.S., and to some extent the world, will not easily recover from the current level of debt overhang.
- Western world will know a period of slow growth due to population dynamics and lack of savings especially in the US and the UK.
- US income gap inequality.
- Equity markets have been absolutely bombarded by bad news since last spring.
- Profit margins are likely to decrease.
- “No Market for Young Men.”: A market forecast of the market (S&P 500) based on previous bear market and showing it return below 1000 and staying there for about 10 more years.
- Underweight equities until the market becomes cheap again or during the next 3rd year of the presidential cycle (2015) whichever comes first.
Finally he gives some recommendations:
- Avoid lower quality U.S. stocks but otherwise have a near normal weight in global equities.
- Tilt, where possible, to safety.
- Try to avoid duration risk in bonds. For the long term they are desperately unattractive.
- I like (personally) resources in the ground on a 10-year horizon, but I am nibbling in very slowly because, as per my Quarterly Letter on resources in April 2011, I fear a major short-term decline in commodities based on a combination of less bad weather – which has been bad, but indeed less bad – and economic weakness, especially in China. Prices have declined, often quite substantially, since that letter. However, I believe chances for further price declines in resources are still better than 50/50 as China and the world slow down for a while, and the weather becomes a bit more stable.