GEAB 70 - 2013, The First Steps into The "World Afterwards" in Complete Chaos

Here are the highlights of GEAB 70 (December 2012) entitled "2013, The First Steps into The "World Afterwards" in Complete Chaos":

• 2013, The First Steps into The "World Afterwards" in Complete Chaos - As the world enters into a global recession in 2013, it will become more fragmented into regional blocks. Although  the Euroland, South America and Asia should come strengthen from the crisis, the US, the United Kingdom, Israel and Japan should be greatly weakened.
• Politics in Germany until 2017 – Weaking of main political parties, and increase in the number of small parties.
• Yearly evaluation of LEAP anticipations – 75% success rate en 2012. By their own assessment, before new anticipations are published in GEAB 71 next month.
• Global systemic crisis: Assessments of 40 « country-risks» - LEAP 2020 team looks into 40 countries, and how they are likely to handle the 2013 crisis.
• Strategic and operational recommendations. Stock markets are likely to slide downwards, banks will suffer and it may be wise to spread assets among several banks,  prudence is required when investing in real estate, and keep stocking up Gold.
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. 66% (vs 48% in November) of respondents experienced price increases..

The full GEAB 70 report (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year for 10 new issues + the 6 issues published before registration.

GEAB 69: Katrina-Sandy : From one Storm to the Other, the End of America as we Knew it

Here are the highlights of GEAB 69 (Novenber 2012) entitled "Katrina-Sandy : From one Storm to the Other, the End of America as we Knew it":

• Katrina-Sandy : From one Storm to the Other, the End of America as we Knew it - The LEAP team has a controversial view that says Sandy, a small storm that has put New York to its knees, has shown that America has greatly weakened, and that it's the country we once knew anymore. In this section they also address the political division of the US and its dire financial & economic situation.
• 2013, the king is naked: The great geopolitical dislocation of America. - The US economy is slowly but surely weakening, and 2013 will be the year of the real crisis where the "dollar wall" will collapse.
• China 2013 : The global riot laboratory - A view of riots in China, and their consequences.
• A Canadian Tragedy – The Slump of its Real Estate Market - Contrary to the view of Canadian banks who see a market stabilization, LEAP believe the recent slumps in Toronto and Vancouver announced the popping of the Canadian real estate bubble.
• Strategic and operational recommendations. Currencies may remain irrational for a little longer, it's not to late to escape from the stock market, get physical Gold and do not play short term trades, energy commodities are better for the long term, but may suffer in the short term, and it's really not a good time to invest in Canadian real estate..
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. Only 65% of respondents expect the dollar to go down, which is the lowest figure since the survey started.

The full GEAB 69 report (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year for 10 new issues + the 6 issues published before registration.

GEAB 65: Global Systemic Crisis / H2 2012 – Convergence of 4 Explosive Factors: Banks-Stock Markets-Pensions-Debts

Here are the highlights of GEAB 65 (May 2012) entitled "Global Systemic Crisis / H2 2012 – Convergence of 4 Explosive Factors: Banks-Stock Markets-Pensions-Debts":

• Global Systemic Crisis:Convergence of 4 Explosive Factors: Banks-Stock Markets-Pensions-Debts - Basically the SHTF for Western economies in the second semester of 2012 with bank failure, stock market crashes, pension funds and debt crisis.
• Which languages should your child learn so that they are useful to him in 20 years? Forecast of the main languages used within Europe and in the World by 2030.
• Strategic and operational recommendations. Gold will prevail in the long run, preservation of capital for retirees, time to exit the stock markets before complete chaos, don't blindly trust the banks and don't be trapped in sovereign bonds.
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. The majority of respondents think that large banks in their country may go bankrupt by the end of 2012 increases to 66% this month against 61% last month.

The full GEAB 65 report (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year for 10 new issues + the 6 issues published before registration.

GEAB 64 - France 2012-2014 - The Great Republican Earthquake and its International Impact

François Hollande

Here are the highlights of GEAB 64 (April 2012) entitled "France 2012-2014 - The Great Republican Earthquake and its International Impact":

• Global Systemic Crisis: France 2012-2014 - The Great Republican Earthquake and its International Impact.  François Hollande victory will trigger a set of massive changes in the direction of the European project, which make the French presidential election more important than the US presidential race.
• Political Anticipation Methodology - Knowing how to decrypt the attempts to take control of the collective psyche.LEAP here talks about the methods used by government (e.g. declaring wars) to control the collective narrative, for example by inventing an Iranian threat...
• The madness of Canada real estate, repetition of the US mistakes – Towards a slump in price between 15% to 25% from 2013. The current real estate boom in Canada is due to excessive private debt.
• Strategic and operational recommendations. AUD and NZD outlook, the great fiscal attack starts now, the next leg down for the US stock market and economy has (re)started, Canadian residential real estate prices will sharply drop and European politician ready to counter attack against Euro speculators.
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. 74% of respondents (vs. 71% in March 2012) expect a sharp decline of the US dollar.

The full GEAB 64 (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues). 

GEAB 63: Global Systemic Crisis: The 5 Devastating Storms of Summer 2012 at the Heart of the Global Geopolitical Dislocation

Here are the highlights of GEAB 63 (March 2012) entitled "Global Systemic Crisis: The 5 devastating storms of summer 2012 at the heart of global geopolitical dislocation":

• Global Systemic Crisis: The five devastating storms of summer 2012 at the heart of the global geopolitical dislocation.  Global recession, debt crises, stock market crashes, potential war with Iran.
  
• Summer 2012: The US falls back into recession as Europe stagnates and BRICs slow down. LEAP 2012 predicts a global recession in 2012.
• Summer 2012: Central banks roadblocks and the rise of interest rates. The US federal reserve must now manage two new problems: the lack of demand for US treasuries and the rise of two other currencies: the Euro and the Chinese yuan.
• Summer 2012: Storm on currency markets and western public debts. After several attempts to stabilize exchange rates over the last few quarters, the failure to come to an agreement for a new currency at the G20 in order to build a new monetary system will lead to more currency volatility and further debt crises in western economies.
• Summer 2012: Iran, the war "too many". Whether this war occurs or not, it will be the war too many for the western world.
• Summer 2012: The new stock market and financial institutions crash. Iran's allies, such as China, are likely to hurt Washington financially by diversifying US dollar assets into other currencies.by announcing with Moscow that they will stop buying US treasuries in order to stop the US war machine.
• 2015: "The great fall of western real estate" - Excerpt of the chapter on the evolution of US residential real estate. As the US manufactures less and less, the country will become poorer and accelerated the fall of American real estate.
• Strategic and operational recommendations. Consequence of the emergence of 3 main monetary zones (US Europe and China). Inflection point for Gold. Commodities: conflict vs recession. End of the illusion for the US economy. Orange alert (whatever that means) on financial products..
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. 85% of respondents think of European governance is being put into place.

The full GEAB 63 (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

GEAB 62: Euroland 2012-2016 : Perennisation of a New Global Power Contigent On Democratization

Here are the highlights of GEAB 62 (February 2012) entitled "Global Systemic Crisis: Euroland 2012-2016 : Perennisation of a new global power contingent on democratization":

• Global Systemic Crisis: Euroland 2012-2016 : Perennisation of a New Global Power Contingent on Democratization. The Euroland will come out stronger of the crisis as long as people are involved in the Euroland project (and not just technocrats).
• 2013 : End of the US Dollar Supremacy in Global Commercial Transactions. The decreased amount of commercial transactions in US dollars will be the main trigger of the demise of the dollar, not USD currency reserves by foreign powers.
• 2015 – The Great Slump of Western Real Estate. LEAP 2020 forecasts important price correction for real estate in western economies by 2015. (Excerpt from a book to be published in March 2012)
• January 2012 GEAB $ Index: The US dollar accelerates its loss of value against the currency basket €, ¥, Ұ et R$.
  
• Strategic and operational recommendations. Many currencies will fall sharply, mind where you keep your Gold, solutions for Greece, winter stock market returns were a travesty and the coming great collapse of Western residential real estate.
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. 69% of respondents (vs. 58% in January 2012) expect an important fall in the value of the US Dollar in the coming months.

The full GEAB 62 (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

GEAB 61: Global Systemic Crisis: 2012 : The Year of the Great Global Geopolitical Swing

Here are the highlights of GEAB 61 (January 2012) entitled "Global Systemic Crisis: 2012 : The Year of the Great Global Geopolitical Swing":

• Global Systemic Crisis: 2012 : The Year of the Great Global Geopolitical Swing. 2012 will be a transition year year between the old world and the new world order.
• USA 2012: Towards QE3 Tragedy. QE3 will play an important role in the transition.
• Anticipations 2012 - 20 up and 15 down. 35 Key Trends for 2012. For example, LEAP anticipates that People will become more and more angry, revolt around the world  and contribute to the transition. They also expect that the power of central banks will decrease and that the Euro crisis will disappear in the headlines as the UK and the US debt crises will come back in front pages.
• Strategic and operational recommendations
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses 

The next month, LEAP/E2020 will unveil its anticipations for Europe 2012-2016 in GEAB 62.
The full GEAB 61 (PDF format) is available to subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

GEAB 60: Global Systemic Crisis: USA 2012/2016 : An Insolvent and Ungovernable Country

Here are the highlights of GEAB 60 (December 2011) entitled "Global Systemic Crisis: USA 2012/2016 : An Insolvent and Ungovernable Country ":

• From the non-dismemberment of the Euroland to the dismemberment of the United Kingdom: The United Kingdom could be broken up with Wales and Scotland becoming independent countries.

• The Future of the USA 2012/2016 : The United States are insolvent and ungovernable. The US dollar may drop by 30% against a basket of currencies.

• Yearly evaluation of LEAP anticipations – 82% success in 2011

• Strategic and operational recommendations - Currency trend reversal, gold constant and British pounds currency crisis by 2015.

• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses - 65% of respondents expect a collapse of the US dollar in 2012.

The full GEAB 60 (PDF format) is available to subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

GEAB 59: Global Systemic Crisis: 30 Trillions USD Will Disappear By 2013

Here are the highlights of GEAB 59 (November 2011) entitled "Global systemic crisis: 30,000 billion US dollars in ghost assets will disappear by early 2013 / The crisis enters a phase of widespread discounting of Western public debt ":

• Global systemic crisis: 30,000 billion US dollars in ghost assets will disappear by early 2013 / The crisis enters a phase of widespread discounting of Western public debt

As we come to the end of the second half of 2011, it is evident that 15,000 billion in ghost assets have gone up in smoke since last July, just as was anticipated by LEAP/E2020 (GEAB N°56). And, according to our team, this process figures to continue at the same rate throughout the year to come. Indeed we estimate that, with the introduction of a 50% discount on Greek government debt, the global systemic crisis has entered a new phase: that of the generalized discount on Western public debt and its corollary, the fragmentation of the global financial markets… Read public announcement

• An on average 30% discount of Western debt between now and early 2013 ... without activation of sovereign CDSs, which appear a vast scam

According to LEAP/E2020, from now through the first quarter of 2013, Western public debt will be affected by a discount of 30% on average. This includes European debts (Euroland, the United Kingdom, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe) as well as the United States and Japan. Of an approximate $45,000 billion, this will mean an extra $15,000 billion that will be transformed into “ghost assets”, leading to a new shock for the global financial system, and contributing in particular to the decimation of Western banks — as anticipated in the GEAB N°58 — and to the loss of an additional $15,000 billion…

• 2017 – End of the transatlantic relationship formed after 1945: The last US soldier leaves European soil

The same cause can produce totally inverse effects, depending on the original state of the systems under consideration. Thus we see that the current debt crisis in the Western world, in particular with regard to sovereign debts, will generate two inverse evolutions when it comes to the politics of defense, one playing out in the United States, another in Euroland...

• Strategic and operational recommendations

. Financial sector (banks, insurance, pension funds, hedge funds): The trend is confirmed!
. Gold: Stay on course!
. Stock Market: Restrictions grow tighter!
. Commodities: Warning, danger!
. Currencies: Lurch ahead!

• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses

A major change can be observed in the emergence of a strong majority of respondents indicating that we are witnessing the establishment of Euroland governance (68%, as opposed to 48% the previous month)…

The full GEAB 59 (PDF format) is available to subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

GEAB 58: H1 2012: Decimation of Western Banks

Here are the highlights of GEAB 58 (October 2011) entitled "Global systemic crisis - First semester 2012: Decimation of Western banks":

• Global systemic crisis – First half of 2012: Decimation of the Western banks

It’s this very unhealthy financial environment that will cause the "decimation of Western banks" in the first half of 2012: with their profitability in freefall, balance sheets in disarray, with the disappearance of trillions of USD assets, with States increasingly pushing for strict regulation of their activities, even placing them under public supervision and increasingly hostile public opinion, now the scaffold has been erected and at least 10% of Western banks will have to pass that way in the coming quarters... Read public announcement

• Global systemic crisis: LEAP/E2020 anticipation of 40 countries’ risks 2012-2016 (USA, Euroland, BRICS, Japan, UK, Australia, Argentina, Sweden, Egypt, Switzerland, Philippines, Mexico, South Korea, Morocco, Libya, Syria, Iran, Israel, Poland, Thailand, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Chile, …) - Widespread collapse at the heart of the global geopolitical dislocation phase... with very different prospects for exiting the crisis depending on the country

In this issue, our team sets out the annual update of "countries’ risks" under the crisis from 2012 to 2016. The assessment of country risk for the next 5 years is meant to be a decision-making tool for political and economic players and investors (individuals, companies or institutions). In a world in turmoil, it offers a medium-term perspective based on the methodology of political anticipation which has proved itself over nearly six years in terms of anticipating the global crisis and its consequences. Based on an analysis incorporating twelve criteria this year, this decision-making tool has already demonstrated its relevance for many years, faithfully anticipating developments generated by the crisis....

• GEAB $ Index – October 2011: The US$ fall accelerates against the €, ¥, Ұ and R$ basket

As our team has explained in many GEAB issues, the traditional Dollar Index (used by the financial markets) isn’t a reliable indicator for calculating the Dollar’s progress. In fact, it is based on a basket of currencies which is no longer representative, neither of the major global monetary balances, nor United States’ trade. This currency basket is, in fact, a "tiny Western club" even more illegitimate today than the G8. …

• Strategic and operational recommendations
  
  • Banks: How to avoid being trapped in the decimation of Western banks?
  • Gold – Currencies: A new inflexion point coming up
  • Commercial real estate: The moment of truth comes closer
    

• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses

We note a continuation of the major uncertainty over the exact state of Euroland governance progress. This month opinion is split (48%), still showing the clash between the laborious, but real, putting in place of this governance with the solid message showing the opposite…

The full GEAB 58 (PDF format) is available to subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

GEAB 57: Q4 2011: Implosive Fusion of Global Financial Assets

Here are the highlights of GEAB 57 (September 2011) entitled "Global systemic crisis - Fourth quarter 2011: Implosive fusion of global financial assets":

• Fourth quarter 2011: Implosive fusion of global financial assets

As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 since November 2010, and often repeated up to June 2011, the second half of 2011 has started with a sudden and major relapse of the crisis. Nearly USD 10 trillion of the USD 15 trillion in ghost assets announced in GEAB N ° 56 have already gone up in smoke. The rest (and probably much more) will vanish in the fourth quarter of 2011, which will be marked by what our team calls "the implosive fusion of global financial assets"... Read public announcement

• Advice to the G20 leaders: The G20’s three strategic priorities in 2012/2014 to avoid a « tragic decade »

On March 29, 2009, Franck Biancheri signed an open letter in the Financial Times international edition from LEAP/E2020 to the G20 leaders who were going to meet in London the next week. In its introduction, this text predicted that if the three recommendations it contained were not implemented as soon as possible, rather than a crisis of three to five years, the world would sink into a crisis for more than a decade.Here we are two and a half years later and, alas, it is now clear that not only has the crisis revealed in 2008 not been resolved…

• End 2012 – Neo-protectionism establishes itself as the new paradigm of world trade

Because of the simultaneity of the global economy relapsing into recession and key political events affecting the world’s major economies, we anticipate a sharp rise in protectionism from the end of 2012. In its initial phase, it will mainly take the form of various non-tariff barriers, more discreet than traditional customs duties, but it will, de facto, cause the most important change in the terms of world trade since the signing of the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the WTO’s predecessor) in 1947…

• Gold 2011- 2014: LEAP/E2020’s anticipations

Of course, as after each significant increase in an asset’s price, the debates rage between, on the one hand, those who analyze this increase as the emergence of a bubble inevitably destined to burst in the more or less near future and, on the other hand, those who believe that it is only the beginning of a long rise culminating with the return of the gold standard at the heart of the international monetary system. Therefore, in this issue, LEAP/E2020 presents its anticipations on this subject for the period 2012-2014 to help investors make their gold arbitrage trades…

• Strategic and operational recommendations
  
  • Currencies: Watch out! Severe turbulence on the horizon
  • Swiss Franc: Eurolanders and Swiss…watch out, end of an epoque in sight!
  • Financial markets: Salvation is in flight
  • Real estate: The trend asserts itself
    

• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses

A very large majority (84%) consider that private creditors will be increasingly called upon to finance European public debts. This view will have a major impact in the numerous elections taking place in the next twelve months…

The full GEAB 57 (PDF format) is available to subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

GEAB 55: Explosive fusion of world geopolitical dislocation and the global economic and financial n crisis in H2 2011

Here are the highlights of GEAB 55 (May 2011) entitled "Global systemic crisis - Confirmation of a Major Alert for the second half of 2011 – Explosive fusion of world geopolitical dislocation and the global economic and financial crisis":

• After Fukushima: The six essential features of the revolution in the nuclear power decision-making process for the 2010-2020 decade

For the sake of completeness, the title of this exercise in political anticipation applied to nuclear power should also include two other factors besides Fukushima, namely the Internet and the global energy crisis which is one of the elements of the global systemiccrisis we are experiencing. In effect, it is the combination of these three factors which, according to LEAP/E2020, radically and permanently alters the whole decision-making process on nuclear power that we have known since this source of energy took its first steps after the Second World War…

• Global systemic crisis - Confirmation of a Major Alert for the second half of 2011 – Explosive fusion of world geopolitical dislocation and the global economic and financial crisis

Our team confirms in this GEAB issue that all the conditions have now been met for the second half of 2011 to be the stage for the explosive fusion of two fundamental trends underlying the global systemic crisis, namely world geopolitical dislocation on the one hand and the global economic and financial crisis on the other… Read public announcement

• Increasing market volatility and weakening of their « powerful operators »: The case of the silver and commodity markets
  

• When Athens aims to hide London and Washington
  

• The Battle of Frankfurt or the final attempt to turn the ECB into a satellite under the influence of Wall Street and the City
  

• Barriers, security, export embargos, diversification of reserves, frenzy over commodities, widespread rising inflation ... the world is preparing for a new economic, social and geopolitical shock - Read public announcement

• Strategic and operational recommendations

Gold & Precious metals, Currencies, Basic foodstuffs and energy, Financial markets, Nuclear

• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses

We see an increase in the majority of respondents (63% in May versus 59% in April) who consider that Eurozone economic governance will not be established by the end of 2011. Even though Euroland has asserted itself as a reality within a year, it’s clearly the lack of a governance structure which fuels this contrary to reality opinion...

Investments Newsletters and Blogs

There are lots of investment and economic newsletters around, here are the main one I follows either directly (free) or indirectly (paid one) by reading to articles or listening to interviews by the publishers.

Free newsletters and Blogs

• GMO - Jeremy Grantham: Quarterly newsletter. http://www.gmo.com/ where you get a market commentary and expected returns based on the return to the mean. Grantham is the specialist on Bubbles. You'll also get a 7-year market return forecast (for US, emerging and lumber) every month.
• Mish Global Economic Trends Forecast - http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ - with a least three post a day and very informative. Beside economic commentary, you'll also get some more political stances mainly about the handling of US Debt and American unions by politicians.
• Sprott Newsletter - http://www.sprott.com/ - Free Monthly Newsletters (Market at Glance) about precious metals and current market conditions.
  

Paid Newsletters and Commentaries

• Marc Faber - Monthly Market Commentary - http://www.gloomboomdoom.com it costs 300 USD yer year tp get 12 monthly commentary per year. Some older samples are free. for example http://new.gloomboomdoom.com/subscribers/download/051009.pdf
• LEAP 2020 - This is an anticipation newsletter somewhat pro-Europe, but still very interesting - http://www.leap2020.eu - that cost 200 Euros per year and provide an overview of likely trends in the next few months and years. A shorter public (free) version is available every month.
• Trends Journal - Quarterly publications based future trends based on Current Event by Gerald Celente and its team at Trends Research - http://www.trendsresearch.com available for 99 USD per year (Online) and 185 USD per year (Online and Magazine). Discounts are available for the unemployed and financial distressed persons.