Ron Paul: The US is Broke and Already Over Fiscal Cliff

Ron Paul is interviewed on Bloomberg about the US presidential elections.

He explains that the US is broke, it already passed the fiscal cliff, and we reached a point of no return. I completely agree with this statement, and this has nothing to do with politics, it's just Maths, which most voters in the US and other "developed" economics do not seem very good at. That's actually frightening that only 1% of US voters seem to get it.

He carries on to say the problem is with the people, who just want more bailouts (and that's true both for poor, the middle class and the richest 1% of the US population). He gave the auto industry bailout as an example, and said the people in the Midwest did not vote for Mitt Romney because he had opposed the government bailout of General Motors and Chrysler. In that respect, the US is just the same as Greece as people do not wan  to cut anything, yet Greece is criticized and laughed at in the US.

GEAB 66: Global Systemic Crisis Red Alert !

Here are the highlights of GEAB 66 (June 2012) entitled "Red Alert Global Systemic Crisis September-October 2012 : When the 7 Jericho trumpets will blow for the world of before the crisis":

• Red Alert Global Systemic Crisis September-October 2012 : When the 7 Jericho trumpets will blow for the world of before the crisis. LEAP 2020 team has never seen so many economic, financial and political factors converge at the same time and this leads them to issue a Red Alert for Autumn 2012.They see 13 factors:
  
  1. Global recession.
  2. Insolvency of the financial system in the West.
  3. Increasing Weakness of bank assets such as sovereign debts, real estate and CDS.
  4. Slump of international trade.
  5. Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East.
  6. Long term global geopolitical deadlock at the UN.
  7. Rapid collapse of funded pension plans in the Western economies.
  8. Increasing political rifts in major economies (USA, China, Russia).
  9. Lack of "miracle" solutions like in 2008/2009.
  10. Complete lack of credibility for countries battling with high private and public debts.
  11. Failure to reduce the unemployment rate and long term unemployment
  12. Failure of both monetary and financial stimulus policies and austerity policies.
  13. Complete lack of effectiveness of G20, G8, Rio+20, OMC... meetings
• Three economic-financial chocs at the heart of the heart of the historical choc of September/October 2012. "Taxmargeddon" will start in the US this summer, the City-Wall Street will have their own Bankia moment and QE will be too weak to be effective.
• Temporal converge of 4 major geopolitical crises for September/October 2012.  LEAP 2020 anticipate the Iran war will take place this year, along with continued conflicts in Syria, and the Afghanistan/Pakistan debacle. After the Arab Spring last year, they foresee the Arab Autumn.
  
• Strategic and operational recommendations. Need to re-adjust currency holdings,  stay invested in Gold, last chance to get out before massive stock market crash and major risk for banks. 
• GEAB $ Index June 2012 - First time since 2006 : The US dollar goes up against the currency basket €, ¥, Ұ et R$ .
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. The majority of respondents think that a European solution to the crisis is better than national solutions (96% this month vs 91% last month)

The full GEAB 66 report (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year for 10 new issues + the 6 issues published before subscription.

Barron's Midyear Roundup: Marc Faber Markets Outlook

Now is the time for Barron's Midyear Roundup. They had 10 experts on their panel including Marc Faber. Here are Marc Faber's picks.

Investment/Ticker	Price 6/6/12
Gold (spot, per ounce)	$1,619.30
Goldcorp/GG	40.24
Singapore REITS
Mapletree Comm Trust/MCT	S$0.92
Frasers Centrepoint Trust/ FCT	1.63
K-REIT Asia/KREIT	0.98
Mapletree Logistics Trust/MLT	0.98
Ascott Residence Trust/ART	1.06
Cache Logistics Trust/CACHE	1.03
Parkway Life/PREIT	1.81

and what he had to say:

Are things really as bad as they look?

FABER: The global economy has slowed considerably. Europe is in recession, and growth in U.S. GDP might owe more to statistical aberrations than reality. In Asia, the Chinese economy has been decelerating sharply, which impacts China's trading partners and industrial commodity prices. Lower demand for commodities hurts commodity producers, whether in Argentina, Brazil, Africa, or Russia.

Will things get worse before they get better?
Yes, possibly much worse. Central bankers will argue that more stimulus is needed. But the crisis has occurred in large part because governments have grown excessively large. The private sector produces growth. When government is 40%, 50%, 60% of the economy, the economy won't perform well. If you cut government spending meaningfully, you produce more growth, although this can be painful in the near term. Canada took this course in the mid-1990s. The outlook is grim for the federal deficit in the United States. Regardless of who wins the election, there will be compromises. But spending cuts will be back-end loaded and tax increases will be postponed. We won't see a federal deficit below a trillion dollars for a long time.

What will the stock market do for the rest of this year?
Most markets peaked in May 2011. The S&P 500 fell to 1,074 by Oct. 4 from 1,370. Then we had a strong rebound with the index making a new high at 1,422. This high wasn't confirmed by other indexes, such as the Value Line Index, the Russell 2000, and the Dow Jones Transportation index. The S&P 500 is vulnerable at this level. I anticipate further weakness in the second half of the year. Corporate profits will disappoint. Some 40% of S&P 500 earnings come from overseas, and a large proportion are generated in Europe.
There is no resolution to the problem in Europe because no one wants to accept austerity. The best outcome for Greece probably would be to exit the euro zone. But the new Greek drachma would depreciate by 50% to 70% against the euro. The Greeks don't want their pensions paid in a depreciating currency. Nor do they want austerity, as their pensions and government salaries would be cut by 50%.

How will the stalemate end?
The breaking point could be three, four, five years away. The world is heading toward a major crisis. In the meantime, central banks can continue to print money and markets might move up. Since 2009 stocks around the world have more or less doubled. But the economy hasn't performed well, and the typical household hasn't been helped. With quantitative easing, money flows into the hands of relatively few people. I am very negative about the outlook longer term.
It is safest to buy U.S. Treasuries because the U.S. can print money. It will pay the interest. But you are earning only 1.6%, and the cost of living is increasing by about 5% a year around the world. You are getting a negative real return.

So you're recommending equities, despite the poor backdrop?
I still like my January investment picks. As a group, Singapore REITS look OK. Among them I like Mapletree Commercial Trust [MCT.Singapore], Frasers Centrepoint Trust [FCT.Singapore], K-REIT Asia [KREIT.Singapore], Mapletree Logistics Trust [MLT.Singapore], Ascott Residence Trust [ART.Singapore], Cache Logistics Trust [CACHE.Singapore] and Parkway Life [PREIT.Singapore].
I am also warming to gold shares. Gold corrected to $1,522 last December from $1,921 in September. It rebounded to $1,795 in February and is back down around $1,600. The correction could last longer, but given that governments will print more money, gold is relatively effective as a currency. My preference is physical gold, but I would also own some gold shares, which have been decimated. Goldcorp [GG] is attractive because most of its properties are in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The company isn't exposed to regimes that are talking about nationalizing resources. In general, stock markets are oversold. The U.S. government-bond market is overbought. The U.S. dollar is overbought, and gold is oversold near term.

 Source: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904470204577446414018834948.html

Eric Sprott: The Real Banking Crisis is Back

Sprott Asset Management published their monthly newsletter Market at Glance (May 2012) entitled "The Real Banking Crisis, Part II" and I'll give a summary below.

Back in July 2011,  Eric Sprott and David Baker wrote an article entitled "The Real Banking Crisis" where they discussed the increasing instability of the Eurozone banks suffering from depositor bank runs. Even after numerous bailouts, the Euro Stoxx Banks Index have fallen more than 50% from their July 2011 levels and are now in the midst of yet another breakdown led by the events unfolding in Greece and Spain.

They explain that bank runs have started in several countries

In Greece,  1.2 billion Euros withdrawn have been withdrawn on May 14-15, 2012 and now up to 3 billions euros have left the banking systems since the May 6 elections. Greece is now €21 billion away from a complete banking collapse, unless the European Central Bank (ECB) provide an even bigger bailout.

Bank depositors have been pulling money out of banks in Spain, especially the recently nationalized Bankia bank, which is the fourth largest bank in the country. Depositors reportedly withdrew €1 billion during the week of May 7th alone, prompting shares of Bankia to fall 29% in one day.

Deny, deny some more… panic, inject capital - this is the typical government approach to bank runs, but the bailouts are happening faster now, and the numbers are getting larger.

The recent bank runs in Greece and Spain make foreign investors nervous and according to JPMorgan analysts, approximately €200 billion of Italian government bonds and €80 billion of Spanish bonds have been sold by foreign investors over the past 9 months, representing more than 10% of each market.

Eric Sprott explains further that no matter what happens in the Eurozone, the absolute worst case scenario for the authorities is a bank run, because they can spiral out of control faster than governments can react to stop them. Bank runs also prompt banks to liquidate whatever assets they can, revealing the truth about what their "assets" are actually worth. But banks don't want to show the true value of their assets so for example, many Spanish banks are avoiding property sales so they don't have to "mark to market" valuations.

We're now at the point where a bank run in one Eurozone country could quickly seize up the entire system - not just in Greece or Spain, but throughout the entire Eurozone and beyond, because banks are leveraged. For this reason, we'll likely see another ECB-induced printing program announced (with a new fancy name) before a broader bank run can take root.

However, nothing is really being solved here, everyone knows it, and we're essentially in the same place we were when the crisis erupted back in 2010, except there is now more total debt outstanding.

With increasing level of debt and interest payment, there is no way the bond market keeps pretending everything is ok in Europe, like it currently does with the UK, US and Japan… for now. Greece and Spain Minsky moment (when you realize the debt load can't be repaid) has arrived and is coming to the whole of Europe.

Eric Sprott then says that without a doubt, the most counter-intuitive aspect of the Greece/Eurozone debacle has been its impact on the price of Gold. The selling pressure in Gold once again appears to be expressed primarily through the futures markets (and not physical sales), which are highly levered and rarely involve any physical transactions involving actual bullion. The futures market sell-off also appears to be waning now, since the European banking crisis has provided central banks with a politically-palatable excuse to take action if it deteriorates any further. He further notes that China posted another record Hong Kong gold import number in March of 62.9 tonnes, for a total of 135.5 metric tonnes between in Q1 2012, representing a 600% increase over the same period last year.

The full version of the newsletters is available at http://sprott.com/markets-at-a-glance/the-real-banking-crisis,-part-ii/

Marc Faber: Global Recession in Q4/2012 Q1/2013

Marc Faber is interviewed on CNBC on the 25th of May 2012.

He explains that the best solution would be for a Greek exit, but what's likely to happen is a softening of the German position and the start of Euro-bonds which would be negative for the Euro. However, currently the Euro and the stock markets are oversold and we should anticipate a counter trend rally.

He also mentioned that as everybody focuses on Europe, the real threat to the economy could be the slowdown in India and China.

Some analysts estimate that a Greek exit could lead to a 50% correction in European stocks, but Marc Faber disagrees and views this as a good outcome likely to be positive for stocks.

He then goes into technical analysis and explains that many stocks are breaking and we should except a significant recession, so significant that he's 100% sure there will be a global recession by Q4 2012/Q1 2014 and recommends to hide in US dollars.

Marc Faber: If the Market Makes New Highs, It Will Crash Like It's 1987

Marc Faber is interviewed on Bloomberg on the 10th of May 2012.

When asked if Greece will leave the Eurozone, he answered that it would be much better for Greece and the entire Europe, going even further Spain, Italy or even France should leave the Euro. European countries should all go back to their local currencies and trade internationally with the Euro. If you keeping bailout them out, it just compounds the problem. The public has just been brainwashed into thinking that there would be an economic catastrophe would the Eurozone break up, although it could just be th solution to the European crisis. He then comes hard on European bureaucrat saying they make the government in the U.S. look like an organization consisting of geniuses. The problem in European is too much debt and lack of fiscal discipline.

He has a bearish view on the economy, but investments in Europe might still go up if this print enough money. Speculators should look at high quality stock in Spain, Portugal and Italy, as the market is oversold.

There has been a minor correction in the US, but it could become more serious. A new high has been made in April (S&P at 1422), but technicals look bad and he does not see the S&P 500 making new high unless there is a HUGE QE 3. But if QE 3 occurs, and the markets make new highs, you can expect a massive crash like in 1987.

GEAB 62: Euroland 2012-2016 : Perennisation of a New Global Power Contigent On Democratization

Here are the highlights of GEAB 62 (February 2012) entitled "Global Systemic Crisis: Euroland 2012-2016 : Perennisation of a new global power contingent on democratization":

• Global Systemic Crisis: Euroland 2012-2016 : Perennisation of a New Global Power Contingent on Democratization. The Euroland will come out stronger of the crisis as long as people are involved in the Euroland project (and not just technocrats).
• 2013 : End of the US Dollar Supremacy in Global Commercial Transactions. The decreased amount of commercial transactions in US dollars will be the main trigger of the demise of the dollar, not USD currency reserves by foreign powers.
• 2015 – The Great Slump of Western Real Estate. LEAP 2020 forecasts important price correction for real estate in western economies by 2015. (Excerpt from a book to be published in March 2012)
• January 2012 GEAB $ Index: The US dollar accelerates its loss of value against the currency basket €, ¥, Ұ et R$.
  
• Strategic and operational recommendations. Many currencies will fall sharply, mind where you keep your Gold, solutions for Greece, winter stock market returns were a travesty and the coming great collapse of Western residential real estate.
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. 69% of respondents (vs. 58% in January 2012) expect an important fall in the value of the US Dollar in the coming months.

The full GEAB 62 (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

Marc Faber: Greece Is Not Relevant, China Is.

Marc Faber is interviewed by Fox Business News on the 10th of February 2012.

He explains that Greece is just a small appetizer to a much larger crisis. The market are currently overbought and there should be a correction in February / March the extend of which is yet to be seen. He said he bought shares in Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong in November / January 2011 (Visit Marc Faber Picks at 2012 Barron's Roundtable for details).

He's also bullish on real estate in the US, he would buy a house as it is very cheap now. He gives an example of a nice 5-bedroom house in Phoenix that sold for 120,000 USD.

Finally he says China is the major issue in the world with most indicators pointing to bad economic times.

Jim Rogers on Europe Ratings Downgrade

Jim Rogers interview on Russia Today on 16 January 2012 where he discusses the recent S&P downgrade of many European countries and what the future may hold if Europe breaks up.

Peter Schiff: State of the Gold Market

Following the recent Gold and Silver sell-offs, Peter has written an update to his subscribers:

Friends,

This past week has been a rout for precious metals. From last Monday to today, gold has dropped 10.9% and silver dropped 30.4% (per the London fix). For gold, from $1794 to $1598, and for silver, from $40.46 to $28.16.

The metals have been on a tear for the past few years. Because of this, investors and speculators that do not understand the fundamentals appear to have joined the bull run, and then quickly departed at the first sign of trouble. Good riddance to them, I say. While sharp declines do test the mettle of some value investors, I believe this leaner market presents a great buying opportunity.

The situation in Europe continues to deteriorate daily. Greece is in default and larger EU members look sure to follow. Meanwhile, gridlock is the password in Washington. QE III is coming, and with it, the dollar is headed for another big decline in purchasing power. The Swiss National Bank just instituted a peg to curb inflows of global investors seeking a safe haven – costing franc holders 25% of their position in the course of a week.

To me, this situation screams, "buy gold!" But, unfortunately, herd-like investors are being corralled into the US dollar. However, as with any move that defies reason and economic law, this will not last.

Marc Faber Warns of Major Financial Catastrophe

Marc Faber is interviewed live from Hong Kong by Fox Business on the 21st of September 2011.

Marc Faber says he can't predict when the crash will happen but the stock market is going down because it's discounting a very bad event. However he does not know what the event is yet.

Amazingly he also praised Bernanke. But that was because he did not expand the balance sheet.

Faber says government intervention has gone so far that reducing intervention and lowering the deficit will cause temporary pain. He predicts President Obama will do anything to get the votes including providing handouts.