Marc Faber - Coming Next: Global Crash and U.S. Treasury Bubble Popping

Marc Faber is interviewed on Capital Account (Russia Today) by Lauren Lyster, where the talks about his views on US treasuries and capital markets, the Chinese economy and the consequences of a Chinese slowdown.


First, he explains that since 1981 were the yield was above 15%, US treasury have been in a bull market and is in bubble territory. But as with the Nasdaq in 1999, a bubble can continue inflation, and some friends of Marc Faber think 10 years trasuries will eventually yield less than 1%, and 30 years less than 2%. But his own view is that if yields increase again in markets such as the US and Japan, money will flow into equities, so he's not really worried if stock markets go down, even though he does not rule out a crash.

When asked about China, he basically says that Chinese government numbers are bogus, and when you look at Taiwan and South Korea, you'll find their exports to China are flat, and electricity consumption in China also show a weak picture of the Chinese economy.

Finally, he gives his outlook on what is happening now, and explains there is clearly a recession in Europe, the US is slowing down, but a China slowdown would be more important to the global economy, because it would have a strong impact on emerging economies. Currently Asia is certainly not in recession, but there is basically no growth.

Marc Faber appears in the first 10 minutes below, and the second part is about Libor with a zero hedge contributor.

GEAB 66: Global Systemic Crisis Red Alert !

Here are the highlights of GEAB 66 (June 2012) entitled "Red Alert Global Systemic Crisis September-October 2012 : When the 7 Jericho trumpets will blow for the world of before the crisis":

• Red Alert Global Systemic Crisis September-October 2012 : When the 7 Jericho trumpets will blow for the world of before the crisis. LEAP 2020 team has never seen so many economic, financial and political factors converge at the same time and this leads them to issue a Red Alert for Autumn 2012.They see 13 factors:
  
  1. Global recession.
  2. Insolvency of the financial system in the West.
  3. Increasing Weakness of bank assets such as sovereign debts, real estate and CDS.
  4. Slump of international trade.
  5. Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East.
  6. Long term global geopolitical deadlock at the UN.
  7. Rapid collapse of funded pension plans in the Western economies.
  8. Increasing political rifts in major economies (USA, China, Russia).
  9. Lack of "miracle" solutions like in 2008/2009.
  10. Complete lack of credibility for countries battling with high private and public debts.
  11. Failure to reduce the unemployment rate and long term unemployment
  12. Failure of both monetary and financial stimulus policies and austerity policies.
  13. Complete lack of effectiveness of G20, G8, Rio+20, OMC... meetings
• Three economic-financial chocs at the heart of the heart of the historical choc of September/October 2012. "Taxmargeddon" will start in the US this summer, the City-Wall Street will have their own Bankia moment and QE will be too weak to be effective.
• Temporal converge of 4 major geopolitical crises for September/October 2012.  LEAP 2020 anticipate the Iran war will take place this year, along with continued conflicts in Syria, and the Afghanistan/Pakistan debacle. After the Arab Spring last year, they foresee the Arab Autumn.
  
• Strategic and operational recommendations. Need to re-adjust currency holdings,  stay invested in Gold, last chance to get out before massive stock market crash and major risk for banks. 
• GEAB $ Index June 2012 - First time since 2006 : The US dollar goes up against the currency basket €, ¥, Ұ et R$ .
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. The majority of respondents think that a European solution to the crisis is better than national solutions (96% this month vs 91% last month)

The full GEAB 66 report (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year for 10 new issues + the 6 issues published before subscription.

GEAB 65: Global Systemic Crisis / H2 2012 – Convergence of 4 Explosive Factors: Banks-Stock Markets-Pensions-Debts

Here are the highlights of GEAB 65 (May 2012) entitled "Global Systemic Crisis / H2 2012 – Convergence of 4 Explosive Factors: Banks-Stock Markets-Pensions-Debts":

• Global Systemic Crisis:Convergence of 4 Explosive Factors: Banks-Stock Markets-Pensions-Debts - Basically the SHTF for Western economies in the second semester of 2012 with bank failure, stock market crashes, pension funds and debt crisis.
• Which languages should your child learn so that they are useful to him in 20 years? Forecast of the main languages used within Europe and in the World by 2030.
• Strategic and operational recommendations. Gold will prevail in the long run, preservation of capital for retirees, time to exit the stock markets before complete chaos, don't blindly trust the banks and don't be trapped in sovereign bonds.
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. The majority of respondents think that large banks in their country may go bankrupt by the end of 2012 increases to 66% this month against 61% last month.

The full GEAB 65 report (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year for 10 new issues + the 6 issues published before registration.

Marc Faber: If the Market Makes New Highs, It Will Crash Like It's 1987

Marc Faber is interviewed on Bloomberg on the 10th of May 2012.

When asked if Greece will leave the Eurozone, he answered that it would be much better for Greece and the entire Europe, going even further Spain, Italy or even France should leave the Euro. European countries should all go back to their local currencies and trade internationally with the Euro. If you keeping bailout them out, it just compounds the problem. The public has just been brainwashed into thinking that there would be an economic catastrophe would the Eurozone break up, although it could just be th solution to the European crisis. He then comes hard on European bureaucrat saying they make the government in the U.S. look like an organization consisting of geniuses. The problem in European is too much debt and lack of fiscal discipline.

He has a bearish view on the economy, but investments in Europe might still go up if this print enough money. Speculators should look at high quality stock in Spain, Portugal and Italy, as the market is oversold.

There has been a minor correction in the US, but it could become more serious. A new high has been made in April (S&P at 1422), but technicals look bad and he does not see the S&P 500 making new high unless there is a HUGE QE 3. But if QE 3 occurs, and the markets make new highs, you can expect a massive crash like in 1987.

GEAB 63: Global Systemic Crisis: The 5 Devastating Storms of Summer 2012 at the Heart of the Global Geopolitical Dislocation

Here are the highlights of GEAB 63 (March 2012) entitled "Global Systemic Crisis: The 5 devastating storms of summer 2012 at the heart of global geopolitical dislocation":

• Global Systemic Crisis: The five devastating storms of summer 2012 at the heart of the global geopolitical dislocation.  Global recession, debt crises, stock market crashes, potential war with Iran.
  
• Summer 2012: The US falls back into recession as Europe stagnates and BRICs slow down. LEAP 2012 predicts a global recession in 2012.
• Summer 2012: Central banks roadblocks and the rise of interest rates. The US federal reserve must now manage two new problems: the lack of demand for US treasuries and the rise of two other currencies: the Euro and the Chinese yuan.
• Summer 2012: Storm on currency markets and western public debts. After several attempts to stabilize exchange rates over the last few quarters, the failure to come to an agreement for a new currency at the G20 in order to build a new monetary system will lead to more currency volatility and further debt crises in western economies.
• Summer 2012: Iran, the war "too many". Whether this war occurs or not, it will be the war too many for the western world.
• Summer 2012: The new stock market and financial institutions crash. Iran's allies, such as China, are likely to hurt Washington financially by diversifying US dollar assets into other currencies.by announcing with Moscow that they will stop buying US treasuries in order to stop the US war machine.
• 2015: "The great fall of western real estate" - Excerpt of the chapter on the evolution of US residential real estate. As the US manufactures less and less, the country will become poorer and accelerated the fall of American real estate.
• Strategic and operational recommendations. Consequence of the emergence of 3 main monetary zones (US Europe and China). Inflection point for Gold. Commodities: conflict vs recession. End of the illusion for the US economy. Orange alert (whatever that means) on financial products..
• The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. 85% of respondents think of European governance is being put into place.

The full GEAB 63 (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

Jim Rogers: This is the 70s Again

Jim Rogers is interviewed on Newsmax.tv on the 9th of August 2011.

He discusses the fiscal situation in the US, whether we are entering a new recession or we are in a depression. He also complains about all the mistakes the federal reserve has done by bailing people out.

If the market collapses further, he would cover his shorts and consider buying real assets (commodities). He expects Bernanke to print more money (but probably not call it quantitative easing) and that will lead to some real problems.

He's worried that gold went up too fast, expects a short term correction but does not plan to sell its gold and silver holdings.

Crude Oil may go down further, but if he does he'll buy more although he believes agricultural commodities should perform better.

He also explains his views on treasuries that he does not consider as a safe heaven and he's even shorting them.

Then they discuss the Chinese economy, where policy maker are trying to cool down the economy and reign in inflation (contrary to the US).

Finally, they talk about the US credit ratings, and he does not expect the US to get its AAA rating back during his life time and see more downgrades coming.

Marc Faber: The Market is Extremely Oversold.

Marc Faber talks about the recent market sell-off on CNBC on the 5th of August 2011 .
He thinks it is very unlikely that we reach new highs and he would be using rebounds has a selling opportunity whether Q3 is enacted or not.

He says Treasuries has still perceived as a safe heaven. His view is that gold and silver are overbought in the short term, but would buy again on any dips.

He also explains again his prediction of the total collapse of the economic system further down the road where cash and treasuries will be worthless, stocks will go down but still hold some value and precious metals should perform relatively well.