- 2013, The First Steps into The "World Afterwards" in Complete Chaos - As the world enters into a global recession in 2013, it will become more fragmented into regional blocks. Although the Euroland, South America and Asia should come strengthen from the crisis, the US, the United Kingdom, Israel and Japan should be greatly weakened.
- Politics in Germany until 2017 – Weaking of main political parties, and increase in the number of small parties.
- Yearly evaluation of LEAP anticipations – 75% success rate en 2012. By their own assessment, before new anticipations are published in GEAB 71 next month.
- Global systemic crisis: Assessments of 40 « country-risks» - LEAP 2020 team looks into 40 countries, and how they are likely to handle the 2013 crisis.
- Strategic and operational recommendations. Stock markets are likely to slide downwards, banks will suffer and it may be wise to spread assets among several banks, prudence is required when investing in real estate, and keep stocking up Gold.
- The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. 66% (vs 48% in November) of respondents experienced price increases..
Showing posts with label asia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label asia. Show all posts
Saturday, December 15, 2012
GEAB 70 - 2013, The First Steps into The "World Afterwards" in Complete Chaos
Here are the highlights of GEAB 70 (December 2012) entitled
"2013, The First Steps into The "World Afterwards" in Complete Chaos":
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Marc Faber - Coming Next: Global Crash and U.S. Treasury Bubble Popping
Marc Faber is interviewed on Capital Account (Russia Today) by Lauren Lyster, where the talks about his views on US treasuries and capital markets, the Chinese economy and the consequences of a Chinese slowdown.
First, he explains that since 1981 were the yield was above 15%, US treasury have been in a bull market and is in bubble territory. But as with the Nasdaq in 1999, a bubble can continue inflation, and some friends of Marc Faber think 10 years trasuries will eventually yield less than 1%, and 30 years less than 2%. But his own view is that if yields increase again in markets such as the US and Japan, money will flow into equities, so he's not really worried if stock markets go down, even though he does not rule out a crash.
When asked about China, he basically says that Chinese government numbers are bogus, and when you look at Taiwan and South Korea, you'll find their exports to China are flat, and electricity consumption in China also show a weak picture of the Chinese economy.
Finally, he gives his outlook on what is happening now, and explains there is clearly a recession in Europe, the US is slowing down, but a China slowdown would be more important to the global economy, because it would have a strong impact on emerging economies. Currently Asia is certainly not in recession, but there is basically no growth.
Marc Faber appears in the first 10 minutes below, and the second part is about Libor with a zero hedge contributor.
First, he explains that since 1981 were the yield was above 15%, US treasury have been in a bull market and is in bubble territory. But as with the Nasdaq in 1999, a bubble can continue inflation, and some friends of Marc Faber think 10 years trasuries will eventually yield less than 1%, and 30 years less than 2%. But his own view is that if yields increase again in markets such as the US and Japan, money will flow into equities, so he's not really worried if stock markets go down, even though he does not rule out a crash.
When asked about China, he basically says that Chinese government numbers are bogus, and when you look at Taiwan and South Korea, you'll find their exports to China are flat, and electricity consumption in China also show a weak picture of the Chinese economy.
Finally, he gives his outlook on what is happening now, and explains there is clearly a recession in Europe, the US is slowing down, but a China slowdown would be more important to the global economy, because it would have a strong impact on emerging economies. Currently Asia is certainly not in recession, but there is basically no growth.
Marc Faber appears in the first 10 minutes below, and the second part is about Libor with a zero hedge contributor.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Marc Faber: Relax! Stocks Won't Collpase
Marc Faber is interviewed by CNN on the 20th of January 2012.
First, they discuss he views that US bonds should be rated Junk, with the debt increasing from 1 trillion dollars in 1990 to 5 trillion dollars in 2000 to now over 15 trillion dollars and if we include unfunded liabilities the number would be much higher (something like 100 trillion dollars).
Now, the debt can be serviced because of low interest rates, but if those would be to increase, it would become much more problematic.
Marc Faber also explained that everybody should relax, equities won't collpase because there isa stron (technical) support at 1100 on the S&P 500, and if the S&P 500 drops 200 points, the federal reserve will start QE3.
Finally, he said that Asian banks (in Thailand and Singapore) are a much safer place than western banks for deposit and that contrary to popular beliefs, emerging economies do no rely so much on the west to sustain themselves.
First, they discuss he views that US bonds should be rated Junk, with the debt increasing from 1 trillion dollars in 1990 to 5 trillion dollars in 2000 to now over 15 trillion dollars and if we include unfunded liabilities the number would be much higher (something like 100 trillion dollars).
Now, the debt can be serviced because of low interest rates, but if those would be to increase, it would become much more problematic.
Marc Faber also explained that everybody should relax, equities won't collpase because there isa stron (technical) support at 1100 on the S&P 500, and if the S&P 500 drops 200 points, the federal reserve will start QE3.
Finally, he said that Asian banks (in Thailand and Singapore) are a much safer place than western banks for deposit and that contrary to popular beliefs, emerging economies do no rely so much on the west to sustain themselves.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Marc Faber: This Looks Like a Repeat of 2008
Marc Faber is interviewed on CNBC-TV18 on the 26th of September 2011.
The environment is very similar to 2008 with financing drying up, global liquidity shrinking, assets price collapsing, but the US dollar and US government bonds are strong.
He thinks industrial commodities remain vulnerable. he sees Gold and Silver increasingly perceiving as cash. He would not hold long dated US treasuries for more than 3 weeks (except as a trader).
He would try to accumulate shares on the downside in Asia.
Although not in the video above, Marc Faber also mentioned that "We overshot on the upside when we went over $1,900," and "We're now close to bottoming at USD 1,500, and if that doesn't hold it could bottom to between USD 1,100-1,200."
Please refer to my previous blog post Is it Time to Get Back into Gold and Silver? for details about the 1200 and1500 USD levels.
The environment is very similar to 2008 with financing drying up, global liquidity shrinking, assets price collapsing, but the US dollar and US government bonds are strong.
He thinks industrial commodities remain vulnerable. he sees Gold and Silver increasingly perceiving as cash. He would not hold long dated US treasuries for more than 3 weeks (except as a trader).
He would try to accumulate shares on the downside in Asia.
Although not in the video above, Marc Faber also mentioned that "We overshot on the upside when we went over $1,900," and "We're now close to bottoming at USD 1,500, and if that doesn't hold it could bottom to between USD 1,100-1,200."
Please refer to my previous blog post Is it Time to Get Back into Gold and Silver? for details about the 1200 and1500 USD levels.
Friday, September 9, 2011
Marc Faber: The Final Collapse Will Not Happen Right Now
Marc Faber interview on the Daily Ticker on the 9th of September 2011 where he explains he does not take into account government officials speeches and that Western citizen do not take their responsibilities like Asian citizens and always rely on the government to save them.
Finally, he says the US is worse than Europe, as European have savings, but the main advantage of the US is that they have the printing press.
The good news is that he does not believe the "Final collapse" will NOT happen right now :).
Finally, he says the US is worse than Europe, as European have savings, but the main advantage of the US is that they have the printing press.
The good news is that he does not believe the "Final collapse" will NOT happen right now :).
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