Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Marc Faber January 2013 Market Commentary

Marc Faber has just released his January 2013 market commentary entitled "A Great Attitude Creates a Happy Future" on gloomboomdoom.com.

This month, Marc Faber discusses about what may constitutes the best investment: Education of one's children in the greater sense of the word including morality, generosity,. From one investor perspective, the best returns are achieved with "boring" stocks with lower volatility., and the very best way to even lower volatility further is to hold a diversified portfolio of different assets: properties, equities, bonds, precious metals, and cash.

The monthly market commentary including one attachment:

  • “It’s time to ‘Bet the Farm’ on farming and farmland” by Coast Sullenger. founder of GAIA Capital Advisors.
I could not find the report online, but GAIA capital advisors provides GAIA farming index and GAIA/ EFG Tracker Certificate.

If you want to access the full Monthly Market Commentary (MMC) by Marc Faber, it is available for 300 USD per year

Saturday, December 15, 2012

GEAB 70 - 2013, The First Steps into The "World Afterwards" in Complete Chaos

Here are the highlights of GEAB 70 (December 2012) entitled "2013, The First Steps into The "World Afterwards" in Complete Chaos":

  • 2013, The First Steps into The "World Afterwards" in Complete Chaos - As the world enters into a global recession in 2013, it will become more fragmented into regional blocks. Although  the Euroland, South America and Asia should come strengthen from the crisis, the US, the United Kingdom, Israel and Japan should be greatly weakened.
  • Politics in Germany until 2017 – Weaking of main political parties, and increase in the number of small parties.
  • Yearly evaluation of LEAP anticipations – 75% success rate en 2012. By their own assessment, before new anticipations are published in GEAB 71 next month.
  • Global systemic crisis: Assessments of 40 « country-risks» - LEAP 2020 team looks into 40 countries, and how they are likely to handle the 2013 crisis.
  • Strategic and operational recommendations. Stock markets are likely to slide downwards, banks will suffer and it may be wise to spread assets among several banks,  prudence is required when investing in real estate, and keep stocking up Gold.
  • The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. 66% (vs 48% in November) of respondents experienced price increases..
The full GEAB 70 report (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year for 10 new issues + the 6 issues published before registration.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Marc Faber December 2012 Market Commentary

Marc Faber has just released his December 2012 market commentary "Always try to be a little kinder than Necessary" on gloomboomdoom.com.

This month report explains that something is clearly not quite right with the economy, as the recent performance of Wal-Mart, Tiffany, Genesco, and Kohl’s show. What concerns Marc Faber greatly is that most asset markets had outsized gains since early 2009, excluding Vietnamese, Chinese, Japanese, and European equities, as well as US housing. He believes that investors’ expectations about future returns are far too optimistic, and that in a world that currently hardly grows, investors will need to reduce their future return expectations. Therefore, 2013 will most probably not be a good year for holders of assets, and he has now shifted to the preservation of the outsized gains he has achieved over the last 3 years.

Marc Faber also wishes Merry Xmas to everybody and reminds his readers to try to be as nice and kind to other people quoting Albert Schweitzer: "Constant kindness can accomplish much. As the sun makes ice melt, kindness causes misunderstanding, mistrust, and hostility to evaporate." 

The monthly market commentary including one attachment:
  • The Fed’s Last Hope by Michael A. Gayed,Chief Investment Strategist at Pension Partners, LLC.
I cannot find the attachment, but Gayed mentions it in a marketwatch.com articles, and explains bonds have now very little value, and the relative advantage of dividend yields over bonds yields, will be bullish for stocks.

If you want to access the full Monthly Market Commentary (MMC) by Marc Faber, it is available for 300 USD per year.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

GEAB 69: Katrina-Sandy : From one Storm to the Other, the End of America as we Knew it

Here are the highlights of GEAB 69 (Novenber 2012) entitled "Katrina-Sandy : From one Storm to the Other, the End of America as we Knew it":
  • Katrina-Sandy : From one Storm to the Other, the End of America as we Knew it - The LEAP team has a controversial view that says Sandy, a small storm that has put New York to its knees, has shown that America has greatly weakened, and that it's the country we once knew anymore. In this section they also address the political division of the US and its dire financial & economic situation.
  • 2013, the king is naked: The great geopolitical dislocation of America. - The US economy is slowly but surely weakening, and 2013 will be the year of the real crisis where the "dollar wall" will collapse.
  • China 2013 : The global riot laboratory - A view of riots in China, and their consequences.
  • A Canadian Tragedy – The Slump of its Real Estate Market - Contrary to the view of Canadian banks who see a market stabilization, LEAP believe the recent slumps in Toronto and Vancouver announced the popping of the Canadian real estate bubble.
  • Strategic and operational recommendations. Currencies may remain irrational for a little longer, it's not to late to escape from the stock market, get physical Gold and do not play short term trades, energy commodities are better for the long term, but may suffer in the short term, and it's really not a good time to invest in Canadian real estate..
  • The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. Only 65% of respondents expect the dollar to go down, which is the lowest figure since the survey started.
The full GEAB 69 report (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year for 10 new issues + the 6 issues published before registration.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Jim Rogers: Not a Good Time to Buy Stock, Might Sell Euros

American investor Jim Rogers in Madrid (Spain)...
Jim Rogers is interviewed by Henry Blodget on Business Insider on the 9th of May 2012.

Some people think it's the best time to buy stock in 50 years, but Jim Rogers disagrees. He does not own stock in the US, and heven have some shorts, and does not see how the US stock market could double within a few years as Dr. Jeremy Siegel claims, because the economy is in bad shape and will remain so for some time.

Henry Blodget then asks him if housing has bottomed, and here Jim Rogers agrees that real estate may have bottomed in some markets, and there may be good opportunities especially in the country side, but other places like Massachusetts have probably to go further down.

Switching to currencies... Although he's very pessimistic over the long term, he owns the US dollar, and might sell his Euro holdings because albeit Europeans have implemented austerities measures, they haven't managed to reduce their debt.

As previously stated, he expects Gold to correct further as it has gone up for 11 years in a row, but he will certainly buy if it goes down, and claims the Gold bull run is far from over and will probably end in a bubble, a Gold mania.

Finally, his views on crude oil haven't changed, the surprise is going to be how high it goes as reserves are going down, although a temporary correct could occur in case of serious crisis (e.g. Spain defaults on its debt).

Monday, April 30, 2012

Marc Faber on Money Printing, Asset Allocation, Crude Oil and More

Here's a 2 part interview of Marc Faber by Future Money Trends uploaded on the 29th of April 2012.

In the first video, MArc Faber explains that money printing won't help the general population, but it will increase asset prices, so people who own assets will benefit. The other issue is that central banks can't control where the money go and as a consequence the unemployment rate has not improved much ion the US and in Europe, but people living in emerging economies have benefited.

When asked about equities, he said that also equities are not a good bargain right now, and we may have the high for the end on the S&P 500 at 1422, there is a big risk in not owning equities because of (you guessed it) money printing. He recommends to own some equities especially in Asia (dividends are good ~ 5 to 7%) possibly via ETFs, some precious metals, and for US residents, some real estate in the South of the US.

He concludes by explaining that eventually there will be a complete reset, a complete collapse because there is simply too much debt with bankrupt banks lending to bankrupt to governments and vice versa, and the Ponzi scheme will come to an end. In the second video, they discuss how the ponzi scheme could end. Marc thinks there could be significant price inflation, government may try to give more handouts to their citizen while increasing taxes on rich people, and eventually they'll go to war to put the blame on some other countries.

Then  they switch to discussing about crude oil. Marc Faber first explains that oil prices are volatile and much of it is due to government policy such as manipulating interest rates. When he looks at several aspect of the oil market (demand in the west flat, demand rising in emerging markets, supply constraint and geopolitical tensions in the middle east), he would rather be long on oil.

Marc then talks about  the declining standard of living of US citizen which has started some 30 to 40 years ago compared to the rest of the world and it will continue to fall.

Finally, he's asked what he would advice to young people in Western economies. It might not always be a good idea to borrow money to get a degree, but if your parents are rich enough to pay it, then go for it. He would then start to work for somebody successful in any industry and acquire knowledge. Obviously, you should choose something that you like. There are different kind of success, not only monetary, but a happy family, helping others may also be successes.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

GEAB 64 - France 2012-2014 - The Great Republican Earthquake and its International Impact

Français : Déplacement à Asnières sur Seine
François Hollande
Here are the highlights of GEAB 64 (April 2012) entitled "France 2012-2014 - The Great Republican Earthquake and its International Impact":
  • Global Systemic Crisis: France 2012-2014 - The Great Republican Earthquake and its International ImpactFrançois Hollande victory will trigger a set of massive changes in the direction of the European project, which make the French presidential election more important than the US presidential race.
  • Political Anticipation Methodology - Knowing how to decrypt the attempts to take control of the collective psyche.LEAP here talks about the methods used by government (e.g. declaring wars) to control the collective narrative, for example by inventing an Iranian threat...
  • The madness of Canada real estate, repetition of the US mistakes – Towards a slump in price between 15% to 25% from 2013. The current real estate boom in Canada is due to excessive private debt.
  • Strategic and operational recommendations. AUD and NZD outlook, the great fiscal attack starts now, the next leg down for the US stock market and economy has (re)started, Canadian residential real estate prices will sharply drop and European politician ready to counter attack against Euro speculators.
  • The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. 74% of respondents (vs. 71% in March 2012) expect a sharp decline of the US dollar.
The full GEAB 64 (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues). 

Thursday, March 15, 2012

GEAB 63: Global Systemic Crisis: The 5 Devastating Storms of Summer 2012 at the Heart of the Global Geopolitical Dislocation

Here are the highlights of GEAB 63 (March 2012) entitled "Global Systemic Crisis: The 5 devastating storms of summer 2012 at the heart of global geopolitical dislocation":
  • Global Systemic Crisis: The five devastating storms of summer 2012 at the heart of the global geopolitical dislocationGlobal recession, debt crises, stock market crashes, potential war with Iran.
  • Summer 2012: The US falls back into recession as Europe stagnates and BRICs slow down. LEAP 2012 predicts a global recession in 2012.
  • Summer 2012: Central banks roadblocks and the rise of interest rates. The US federal reserve must now manage two new problems: the lack of demand for US treasuries and the rise of two other currencies: the Euro and the Chinese yuan.
  • Summer 2012: Storm on currency markets and western public debts. After several attempts to stabilize exchange rates over the last few quarters, the failure to come to an agreement for a new currency at the G20 in order to build a new monetary system will lead to more currency volatility and further debt crises in western economies.
  • Summer 2012: Iran, the war "too many". Whether this war occurs or not, it will be the war too many for the western world.
  • Summer 2012: The new stock market and financial institutions crash. Iran's allies, such as China, are likely to hurt Washington financially by diversifying US dollar assets into other currencies.by announcing with Moscow that they will stop buying US treasuries in order to stop the US war machine.
  • 2015: "The great fall of western real estate" - Excerpt of the chapter on the evolution of US residential real estate. As the US manufactures less and less, the country will become poorer and accelerated the fall of American real estate.
  • Strategic and operational recommendations. Consequence of the emergence of 3 main monetary zones (US Europe and China). Inflection point for Gold. Commodities: conflict vs recession. End of the illusion for the US economy. Orange alert (whatever that means) on financial products..
  • The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. 85% of respondents think of European governance is being put into place.
The full GEAB 63 (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

GEAB 62: Euroland 2012-2016 : Perennisation of a New Global Power Contigent On Democratization

Here are the highlights of GEAB 62 (February 2012) entitled "Global Systemic Crisis: Euroland 2012-2016 : Perennisation of a new global power contingent on democratization":
  • Global Systemic Crisis: Euroland 2012-2016 : Perennisation of a New Global Power Contingent on Democratization. The Euroland will come out stronger of the crisis as long as people are involved in the Euroland project (and not just technocrats).
  • 2013 : End of the US Dollar Supremacy in Global Commercial Transactions. The decreased amount of commercial transactions in US dollars will be the main trigger of the demise of the dollar, not USD currency reserves by foreign powers.
  • 2015 – The Great Slump of Western Real Estate. LEAP 2020 forecasts important price correction for real estate in western economies by 2015. (Excerpt from a book to be published in March 2012)
  • January 2012 GEAB $ Index: The US dollar accelerates its loss of value against the currency basket €, ¥, Ұ et R$.
  • Strategic and operational recommendations. Many currencies will fall sharply, mind where you keep your Gold, solutions for Greece, winter stock market returns were a travesty and the coming great collapse of Western residential real estate.
  • The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses. 69% of respondents (vs. 58% in January 2012) expect an important fall in the value of the US Dollar in the coming months.

The full GEAB 62 (PDF format) is available to LEAP 2020 subscribers for 200 Euros per year (10 + 6 issues).

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Marc Faber: Greece Is Not Relevant, China Is.

Marc Faber is interviewed by Fox Business News on the 10th of February 2012.

He explains that Greece is just a small appetizer to a much larger crisis. The market are currently overbought and there should be a correction in February / March the extend of which is yet to be seen. He said he bought shares in Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong in November / January 2011 (Visit Marc Faber Picks at 2012 Barron's Roundtable for details).

He's also bullish on real estate in the US, he would buy a house as it is very cheap now. He gives an example of a nice 5-bedroom house in Phoenix that sold for 120,000 USD.

Finally he says China is the major issue in the world with most indicators pointing to bad economic times.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Marc Faber: US Markets Could Outperform

Interview with Marc Faber on the 14th of November 2011.

They discussed the current European debt crisis, his current portfolio allocation recommendation (25% stocks, 25% real estate, 25% bonds and 25% gold) and his views on the market.

He thinks emerging markets have bottomed out for the time being and that US market will probably continue to outperform other market, because of the Federal Reserve policy. The fed is considering a target of 7.5% unemployment before raising rates, but it may actually never happen.


Sunday, October 30, 2011

Market Predictions for 2012 based on Trends

Last week, I reported Bloomberg Consensus of Predictions for Year-End 2012 in Where are Markets Headed for 2012 ?

That was their average forecast:
  1. S&P 500: 1,428 vs Current: 1,229
  2. 10-year Treasury yield: 2.86% vs Current: 2.14%
  3. Inflation rate: 2.05% vs Current: 3.9%
  4. Unemployment rate: 8.7% vs Current: 9.1%
  5. GDP growth in fourth quarter: 2.5% vs Second quarter, 2011: 1.3%
  6. Gold price per ounce on Sept. 30, 2012: $1,835 vs Current: $1,704
  7. Value of euro: $1.40 vs Current: $1.39
  8. S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index: 136.6 vs Current: 142.8
  9. Barrel of oil: $95 vs Current: $92.58
Today, I'm going to do forecast for the same metrics in a "dumb" way by simply checking the trends on charts and give an estimate for each items and we'll see how it fares end of December 2012:
  1. S&P 500: 1000
  2. 10-Year Treasury yields: 2.5%
  3. Inflation Rate: 2.5%
  4. Unemployment Rate: 8.8%
  5. GDP Growth Rate: 1%
  6. Gold Price: 1850 USD
  7. Euro: 1.37 US dollar
  8. S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index: 135
  9. Barrel of Oil (WTI): 125 US dollar
Sometimes I took the long term trend (e.g. 10 year on gold) and other times shorter trends (e.g end of 2008 to now for oil).

Friday, October 14, 2011

Jim Chanos Says China Banks Deteriorating

Jim Chanos Interview on Bloomberg on the 11th of October 2011.

He's still bearish on Chinese banks even though the government has stepped up to buy Chinese banks shares.

He emphases that his company focuses on the property market in China and that this market has only started to decline.

In the second part of the interview, they discuss US politics: GOP debate, his support for Obama and income inequality in the US.

Finally, he talks about European banks and the need for recapitalization.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Marc Faber May 2011 Market Commentary Summary

Marc Faber has published is May 2011 market commentary entitled "I Used to be an Idealist, then I was a Realist, Now I am a Pessimist". Here are the highlights provided by WallStreetPit:

1. Equity Markets–The markets may be giddy about stocks hitting new highs, but contrarian investor Marc Faber is having nothing of this. He is concerned that stocks will fall sharply in May and that the recent breakout in stocks will prove to be trap for the bulls. The markets are due for a correction and the technicals point to a weak market. In particular, Faber points to the decline in new 52 week highs as evidence of an unhealthy internal market. Right now, Faber would stay away from cyclicals, tech stocks, and banks. If you have to own stocks make sure it is something safe like consumer staples (MO, JNJ, PEP, KO, etc).

2. Gold & Silver—Still likes gold as a long-term investment and recommends dollar cost averaging every month regardless of the price. However, when it comes to silver, Faber is more cautious, noting the recent run-up in the price. He expects a 20%+ correction in the metals complex because the inflation trade has become too crowded.

3. Commodities–Dr Copper is issuing a warning to investors. While the S&P 500 has made a new high, copper failed to do so (non-confirmation). This is a significant development because Dr Copper and the SP 500 have a very high correlation. This signal, along with the large declines in other commodities such as sugar and cotton, leads Faber to believe that stocks could follow commodities lower (in the short-term)

4. Buy Housing–While Faber thinks the US housing market has another 10% to fall, he would be a buyer because of attractive valuations. Faber compares the price of US housing to gold and concludes that housing has not been this cheap since the early 1980′s. But do not think there will be a quick recovery–there won’t be. The main point about housing is that it is a good inflation hedge and will likely keep its purchasing power of the next 10 years. In a serious inflation environment, Faber would rather own housing than paper dollars.

5. More QE Guaranteed–In Faber’s opinion, QE 3 is a near certainty. The US will be running trillion dollar budget deficits for the next 10 years. There is no way they can finance all of this through bond issuance. The Fed will have to at least partially monetize this to keep interest rates low.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Jim Chanos and Mohamed El-Erian on China's Real Estate Bubble and Economy

Jim Chanos, a famous short seller, and Mohamed El-Erian from Pimco were interviewed on CNBC on the 14th of April 2011.

Firstly, Chanos was asked about shorting opportunities and he said he could find a few more opportunities in the U.S due to higher valuations notably in the alternative energy and healthcare sectors.

But most part of the interview was focus on China where both acknowledged the real estate bubble and that property prices started to move lower in China. Jim Chanos sees a hard landing and even compared China to the Soviet Union which had 6-8% growth rates for almost 40 years based on illusion. However, El-Erian rather sees China having a soft landing and dismissed the ideas of comparing China to the Soviet Union as China is "tested" daily by the markets.













Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Mike Maloney about timing the sale of Gold & Silver

This video was released to GoldSilver.com Insiders over 1 month ago.
They made it available to the general public yesterday.

Mike Maloney explains when you should sell your gold & silver and when you should buy you real estate. Do not only set a price in USD or Euro when you'd like to sell, but consider the real value of Gold / Silver by considering metrics such as inflation and Dow to Gold ratio. He also explain real estate is the U.S is still in bubble territory using the price to rent ratio.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

China's Ghost Cities and Malls

SBS Dateline has a very interesting documentary about the Chinese real estate, the ghost cities to several part of china, the in-famous Dongguan mall (largest in the world) which is virtually empty, the ridiculous price of real estate that can not be possibly purchased by working people, and is only used as a store of value for the rich.

There are currently 64 millions vacant apartments in China where 160 millions people could live (assuming 2.5 persons / flat). Jim Chanos also previously said there is enough planned commercial real estate to provide a cubicle for every Chinese citizen.




Since China's real estate is not highly leveraged (50% down-payment requirements), there may not be a large collapse as in the U.S.A, but it's quite possible the number of transactions decrease dramatically, as sellers don't want to sell at loss and buyers do not want to over pay.


How can we take advantage of the coming real estate bubble burst in China?
First, the timing is very uncertain, as the Chinese government may be able to keep the game going for quite a while, so we'd have to find a financial product that does not decay over time.

One of the best way to invest in this is to short commodities themselves, commodities producers stocks and country index heavily relying on commodities such as Australia or Canada.

For most investors (including myself), it's quite difficult (and not really recommended) to short stocks and commodities. However, there are some short ETF leveraged or not. Please bear in mind that some ETF are not well structured and may make you lose money even if the underlying decreases in value (more on that in another blog entry).

Here's some ETF ideas to take advantage of the burst of the real estate bubble in China (I have not studied those in details, they are just starting points):

* PowerShares DB Commodity Dble Short ETN (DEE) - To short commodities. (Warning !!! It's leveraged) - http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dee
* ProShares UltraShort DJ-AIG Commodity ETF (CMD) - To short commodities. (Warning!!! it's leveraged) - http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CMD
* PowerShares DB Commodity Short ETN (DDP) - To short commodities - non leveraged -
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ddp

Usually for short ETF, I wait for a few years to have an history to see how well they track the underlying index, as some as just going to go to zero (by design or incompetence).

I could not find any ETF to short Australian and/or Canadian stock indices.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Marc Faber: if the financial system collapses, you do not want to be in cash and bonds

Marc Faber interview on CNN on the 9th of March 2011.
In a doomsday scenario, avoid cash and bonds, but be invested in equities, precious metals, commodities and countryside real estate. They may go down in value, but at least you'll still have something.