This article is the bi-annual update of the long term charts of the SET Index, price earning ratio and price to book value posted on CNX Translation Forums.
Time for another bi-annual update of the long term charts of the SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand).
usual, the first chart is the SET index between 1975 and now. This
index now stands at about 1480, so a little higher than six month ago
(1440), but this still results from a correction after the index reached
1600, which led it to fall as low as 1362, so sentiment may have
PER stands at 16.5, a level still high but better than the 18 we got 6
months ago, and since the SET is about at the small level, this is the
result of better earnings. Such PER is still fairly high for the Thai
stock market, so there may not be much value at this level.
The price to book value is about the same at 2.3 (vs 2.4) which, again, does not make the Thai stock market a bargain.
conclude, I still consider the Thai stock market to be somewhat
overvalued at an historical level, as well as compared to some other
stocks markets around the world such as Europe, Russian, or Vietnam. The
dividend yield is still around 3% which is about the same as what you
get for a 15 Months fixed deposit. Interestingly, the 15-month deposit
is 3%, 24- and 36-month deposit 2.625%, and 10-month 2.75%, which could
imply banks may expect some economic troubles within 2 to 3 years.