Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Global Oil Market Forecasting: Oil Companies Cut on Capex due to Low Oil Price

Eye opening presentation about oil market forecasts. In the last few years, oil companies spent an increasing amount of money for exploration and discovery, but as the price of oil is more or less stable, their operation starts to become less profitable, so they have started to reduce spending, and sell assets in order to be able to pay dividends. Most companies need crude oil at $100 or over in order to be profitable, with Petrobas needing $150 per barrel.


Source: http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/events-calendar/global-oil-market-forecasting-main-approaches-key-drivers

Nice summary @ http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/02/25/beginning-of-the-end-oil-companies-cut-back-on-spending/

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Long Term Charts of the Thai Stock Market (SET) - July 2013 Update

This article is the bi-annual update of the long term charts of the SET Index, price earning ratio and price to book value posted on CNX Translation Forums.

Time for another bi-annual update of the long term charts of the SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand).

As usual, the first chart is the SET index between 1975 and now. This index now stands at about 1480, so a little higher than six month ago (1440), but this still results from a correction after the index reached 1600, which led it to fall as low as 1362, so sentiment may have changed.

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The PER stands at 16.5, a level still high but better than the 18 we got 6 months ago, and since the SET is about at the small level, this is the result of better earnings. Such PER is still fairly high for the Thai stock market, so there may not be much value at this level.
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The price to book value is about the same at 2.3 (vs 2.4) which, again, does not make the Thai stock market a bargain.
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To conclude, I still consider the Thai stock market to be somewhat overvalued at an historical level, as well as compared to some other stocks markets around the world such as Europe, Russian, or Vietnam. The dividend yield is still around 3% which is about the same as what you get for a 15 Months fixed deposit. Interestingly, the 15-month deposit is 3%, 24- and 36-month deposit 2.625%, and 10-month 2.75%, which could imply banks may expect some economic troubles within 2 to 3 years.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Marc Faber July 2013 Market Commentary

Marc Faber has just published the July 2013 edition of his monthly market commentary (MMC) entitled "Only Losses can teach us about the Value of Assets" on gloomboomdoom.com.


He explains that American economists has viewed consumption as the motor of economic growth since the early 20th century. This led to what he called the Affluenza, an All-Consuming Epidemic, accompanied by an unprecedented array of escalating imbalances:
  • ever-declining personal savings
  • a large fiscal and current account deficit
  • exploding government and consumer debts
  • a protracted shortfall in business fixed investment, employment and available real incomes.
The current fashionable move in the markets is to sell emerging markets and buy the US, and this investing philosophy is likely to disappoint even if the US stock market continues to outperform.

He stresses that the sell-off in late May/June has been extremely benign by historical standards and that far more downside volatility is likely to occur in the months ahead.


Marc Faber concludes with some wise words by Roy D. Chapin:

Be ready when opportunity comes...Luck is the time when preparation and opportunity meet.

There isn't any attachment to this month commentary.

Saturday, June 1, 2013

Marc Faber June 2013 Market Commentary

Marc Faber has just released the June 2013 monthly market commentary (MMC) entitled "The Hidden Dangers of Political Correctness" on gloomboomdoom.com.

Marc Faber first explains "Political Correctness" (PC), which has become the outcome of a distinctive 'turn' in Leftist politics. There's a list of things one must think or say together by the elites, and goes against the right of the individual to establish his or her own beliefs. He goes as far as to say PC "is indeed a purely totalitarian concept, and it asserts the fight of those in power to suppress all but the party line's official lies."

Moving on to deal with to asset markets, Mr Faber explains bond yields have been rising all around the world, and this may negatively affect equities. Based on that fact and several technical indicators, he believes there's significant downside right for stock markets worldwide, and at least it's much more risky than perceived by the crowd of investors.

Marc Faber also mentions one investment he's done recently: gold stocks, as Gold and Silver mining stocks have the potential to rebound by between 30% and 40% following the dramatic slump experience in the last few months.

There's one attachment to this MMC:
  • "The Importance of Being Diligent" by Shinya Deguch, working for Star Magnolia Capital, which provide details about fraud at Bayou Management.
    The report is also available on Slideshare.
If you want to access the full Monthly Market Commentary (MMC) by Marc Faber, it is available for 300 USD per year.  

Friday, May 3, 2013

Marc Faber May 2013 Market Commentary

Marc Faber has just published the latest monthly market commentary on Gloom Boom Doom website. The May 2013 report is entitled "I find it difficult to write and not to be misunderstood".

Here's the summary:

First, I am discussing capital flows and the general belief among some economists that trade and current account deficits do not matter because the money flows back in the form of investments in equities, bonds, real estate, direct investments, and corporate takeovers.
According to Barron’s Big Money Survey, “74% of large portfolio managers are bullish about stocks, which is the Highest Level Ever.” Time to be a contrarian?
I am reluctantly maintaining an approximately 25% weighting in equities (mostly in Asia and in Europe) and I have not yet shorted any stocks because I have learnt that a bubble can get bigger still and exceed my expectations - before it implodes violently.
I want to make clear that I own equities not because of the belief that they are inexpensive and that they will move up substantially but because I do not trust the banking system and, therefore, I do not wish to be overexposed to bank deposits.
Finally, has gold completed its correction and are we entering another major advance as the gold bugs tell us, or are we at the beginning of a major gold bear market as the bears want us to believe?
I am enclosing a report by my friend Michael Gayed entitled “Cognitive Dissonance and the Reflation Disconnect.” I highly recommend our subscribers to read Michael’s report. He opines that, “What is disturbing here is the message the market is giving if inflation expectations do not converge with the level of the stock market. If after all of this monetary action expectations are still faltering for reflation, then something far deeper may be underway which we might only understand with hindsight.”
If you want to access the full Monthly Market Commentary (MMC) by Marc Faber, it is available for 300 USD per year.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Marc Faber April 2013 Market Commentary

Marc Faber has just published the latest monthly market commentary on Gloom Boom Doom website. The April 2013 report is entitled "I am writing and I shall tell you later what it is about".

Marc Faber explains that when a government goes bust in a democracy, as it's inevitably is going to happen in most Western governments, the majority of people who have no assets or few assets will always find it appealing to collect money from the “fat cats”, for example the so-called 1% in the US who own 42.7% of financial wealth. It should be obvious that if 80% of the population owns just 7% of financial wealth, they will be tempted to transfer at some point in future, part of the wealth of the 5% or 10% richest Americans to the masses that have no savings.

He goes on to explain that we are here today because the people who work hard for a living are now vastly outnumbered by those who vote for a living. This changes the way you would invest. Normally, various asset markets and individual investment opportunities would be analyzed according to their merits, but now wealth taxes must be taken into account.

There's one  attachment with this MMC:
  • Update on recent trends in the art market by Kenny Schachter, 

If you want to access the full Monthly Market Commentary (MMC) by Marc Faber, it is available for 300 USD per year.  

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Marc Faber March 2013 Market Commentary

Marc Faber has just published the Gloom Boom Doom market commentary for March 2013 entitled "I do not believe in a deflationary Collapse but I am afraid of it".

After telling investors to relax about short term volatility last month, he explains why he worries about the time when the current asset inflation will give way to a serious asset deflation, which has to happen eventually.

The decline in the gold prices concerns him, as it could mean we are about to enter a period of asset deflation. He stresses 2 points:
  • Uncertainty about the asset deflation timing. Most likely, different asset classes will deflate at different times and with different intensity. 
  • In a deflationary environment, financial assets (stocks, government and corporate bonds especially high yield bonds) would likely be the most vulnerable assets. That's why he can envision money flowing into a sound currency, and move out of fiat money. This is why he still continues to  recommend the gradual accumulation of physical gold.
This month market commentary comes with one attachement:
  • The Indian Budget & the Broken Window Fallacy” by Shanmuganathan “Shan” Nagasundaram. This report shows well-intentioned government plans may not have been as beneficial as thought, and it my have even hurt the ones it intended to help (poor people).
If you want to access the full Monthly Market Commentary (MMC) by Marc Faber, it is available for 300 USD per year.